NOAA Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast Products

NOAA issues three Lake Erie HAB products each year. A Lake Erie HAB Seasonal Retrospective is issued in November at the end of the bloom season as the final bulletin of the year.

Western Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Early Season Projection
The Western Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Early Season Projections, issued beginning in May, estimate bloom severity based on measurements of phosphorus loading from the Maumee River combined with long-range forecasts and historical records. Projections are issued until NOAA issues the Seasonal Lake Erie HAB Forecast in early July. Users can subscribe to receive the projections via email and they are also posted online.

Seasonal Lake Erie HAB Forecast
NOAA issues a seasonal forecast in early July. The Seasonal Lake Erie HAB Forecast gives coastal managers and drinking water facility operators a general sense of how “bad” the upcoming bloom season has the potential to be. The seasonal forecast is an ensemble of models based largely upon phosphorus discharge from the Maumee River.

Lake Erie HAB Forecast
During the bloom season (typically from June until October), the operational NOAA Lake Erie HAB Forecast provides the current extent and 5-day outlooks of where the bloom will travel and what concentrations are likely to be seen, allowing managers to determine whether to take preventative actions. A forecast analysis is updated twice weekly and emailed to subscribers.

For the latest forecast, more info about harmful algal blooms, or to subscribe and receive forecast information by email, please visit the NOAA Lake Erie HAB Forecast website.

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